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The February 2026 conflict in the Persian Gulf and the partial closure of the  sent European gas prices sharply higher, reviving questions about Europe’s energy vulnerability. While the EU successfully reduced its reliance on Russian gas after 2022, it has traded one dependency for another: globally traded LNG exposed to fragile shipping routes. We argue that dependence is not only a concern for energy security; it also creates decarbonization fragility - the risk that reliance on imported fossil fuels undermines the clean energy transition itself. Price spikes push producers toward coal, raise emissions, and give politicians reasons to delay climate action. The solution to both problems is the same: faster deployment of domestic clean energy, better electricity grids, and a coordinated EU industrial strategy. Reducing fossil-fuel demand at home is not only a climate goal - it is the most durable foundation for Europe’s energy security.

Key points from the FREE Network policy brief

• Europe reduced its dependence on Russian gas after 2022, but replaced one vulnerability with another by relying more heavily on LNG shipped through fragile global trade routes - including the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade.
• The Hormuz shock shows that energy insecurity can also become decarbonization fragility: high gas prices may encourage a switch to more polluting fuels like coal, and a difficult political and economic environment risks weakening support for decarbonization policies.
• The authors argue that the strongest response to both problems is faster investment in domestic clean energy, stronger power grids, and a coordinated EU industrial strategy - because lasting resilience comes not from shifting between external dependencies, but from reducing them.

Meet the authors

• , Professor, University Paris-Panthéon-Assas (CRED); Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE); University of Cambridge (EPRG).
  Email: chloe.lecoq@hhs.se
  
  
• , Associate Professor, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), Stockholm School of Economics; House of Sustainable Society (HOSS).
  Email: elena.paltseva@hhs.se