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Maria’s contribution, the policy paper focuses on one of the project’s central questions: whether Western sanctions have meaningfully constrained Russia’s ability to sustain its war.

Her analysis argues that while sanctions did not deter Russia’s invasion, they have reduced revenues, constrained access to advanced technology, and limited financial flexibility - even as impacts remain uneven and are often obscured by data manipulation. Building on discussions in the research series, Maria highlights three key conclusions: Russia’s short-term resilience increasingly rests on war spending and opaque financing that undermine long-term stability; inflation and credit distortions indicate deeper structural stress than official data suggest; and sanctions are most effective when paired with large-scale, predictable Western support for Ukraine.

A key policy option Maria advances is the use of frozen Russian assets to help finance Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction - either through investment returns or collateralization - while remaining consistent with international law.